Analysts Adjust Earnings Estimates for Thai Stocks After Interest Rate Cut


Bangkok: Following the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, analysts have revised their earnings estimates for listed companies and the SET Index. This adjustment comes in response to political stability and clear economic stimulus measures, which are expected to positively influence the Thai stock market.

According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Pichai Lertsupongkij, Chief Commercial Officer of InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., highlighted the challenges and developments in the Thai stock market. The overall economy has shown a slower recovery than anticipated, influenced by the global interest rate trends over the past two years. The recent policy rate cut, coupled with political stability and proactive economic stimulus measures like the distribution of 10,000 baht in the first phase, are expected to support a recovery. These factors have led analysts to anticipate an upward adjustment in the profit estimates for listed companies and the SET Index beyond the
previous target of 1,550 points.

Despite these positive adjustments, the Thai stock market has experienced modest growth, with only a 5% increase since the beginning of the year and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times. Over the past decade, the market has grown at an average rate of just 2.6% per year. This slow growth rate has prompted investors to diversify their portfolios across different asset classes, both domestically and internationally. Certain sectors such as leasing, public utilities, tourism, hospitals, and retail are expected to benefit more significantly from the reduced interest rates.

Moreover, Ms. Boontip Kritchaikul, CEO of InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., discussed the increasing interest among Thai investors in foreign stock markets, despite the challenges and limitations such as accessibility and sufficient market information. InnovestX Securities recently launched the “InnovestX App” under the tagline “The Big Bang of the New Investment Universe,” aiming to elevate the Thai investment
platform to global standards. This app features comprehensive investment products, timely information, advanced tools, and user-friendly interface.

Data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand shows that InnovestX Securities captured a 35% share of new account openings in the second quarter of 2024, with an 83% increase in new account openings from the beginning of 2024 to the third quarter compared to the same period in 2023. The firm now boasts an investor base of over 1 million, a record high in new customer registrations, out of a total of 2.8 million investors in Thailand. Furthermore, the number of Thai investors venturing into foreign markets grew by 182% from the beginning of 2024 to the third quarter compared to the previous year, reflecting a strong interest in diversifying investment opportunities across different economic cycles worldwide.