Assadet” believes that fundflow will continue to flow in after foreigners turn to buy Thai stocks in September 2024, the highest in 22 months, sees “Vayupakdi-ThaiESG” supporting the Thai stock market in the last quarter of this year.
Mr. Soraphol Tulayasathian, Deputy Managing Director, Head of Corporate Strategy, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), revealed the Thai stock market situation in September 2024. The SET Index closed at 1,448.83 points, up 6.6% from the end of August, which was the highest increase since August 2021. When compared to the end of 2023, the SET Index increased by 2.3%, with all industry groups increasing. The groups that performed better than the SET Index when compared to the end of 2023 were the Technology group, the Consumer Products group, and the Agriculture and Food Industry group.
The average daily trading value in SET and mai was adjusted to 62,503 million baht, an increase of 26.4% from the same period of the previous year and an increase of 35.8% from the previous month, r
esulting in the average daily trading value in the first 9 months of 2024 at 46,481 million baht, with 1 new company listed on SET, namely Petch Srivichai Enterprise PCL (PCE), and 2 new companies listed on mai, namely SEI Medical PCL (SEI) and PMC Label Materials PCL (PMC).
The Forward P/E of the Thai stock market at the end of September 2024 was 15.8 times, higher than the average of the Asian stock market at 13.0 times, and the Historical P/E was 17.5 times, higher than the average of the Asian stock market at 15.6 times.
External factors include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcing a 0.5% cut in the policy interest rate to 4.75% – 5.0%, the first cut in over 4 years, in order to balance the risks to employment and inflation targets. The US stock market responded positively, indicating that investors are still confident that the economy will not enter a recession. In addition, if we look at historical data, if the FED cuts interest rates, it will be good for the domestic stock market. Emer
ging markets are starting to see signs of foreign investment moving to the ASEAN stock market, resulting in most stock market indices increasing significantly in September, especially the Thai, Philippine and Singaporean stock market indices, respectively.
Meanwhile, domestically, there are positive factors, such as Thai politics becoming clearer after the election of a new prime minister, Thai economic figures reported being stronger than analysts expected, and measures related to the capital market through increased investment by domestic institutional investors, causing foreign investors to turn back to buy Thai stocks in September, the highest in 22 months, resulting in the baht tending to appreciate rapidly. However, if we look at the Sensitivity Analysis, we find that stocks of companies in the export and tourism groups may be negatively affected by future profit forecasts. This is in contrast to stocks of companies in the domestic play group and groups with a high proportion of imports for production,
which may benefit from lower costs, while the SET Index has adjusted upwards with dense trading value in the past month.
Mr. Asadej Kongsiri, Director and Managing Director of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), assessed the direction of the stock market in the remaining 3 months of this year that there is still good hope from domestic factors that are still positive. Starting next week, the announcement of the operating results of Q3/2024 of listed companies will start, which has a good signal. But what must be given importance at this time is external factors, both positive and negative, such as China’s economic stimulus measures, which must be assessed to see which groups of Thai businesses will have an impact. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East must be monitored. If investors assess that it is a risk, they may park their money in safe assets. Therefore, they must look at the information completely.
However, there is still an expectation that fund flow will continue to flow in because t
here is currently no clear signal that will cause fund flow to flow out while the attractiveness of our capital market is still good.
For the government’s capital market stimulus measures, such as the Vayupak Fund, one Type A investment unit with a fundraising value of 150 billion baht, it is considered that it is just the beginning and we still have to wait and see the timing. It is believed that there will be gradual investment after this. As for the ThaiESG Fund, it is in the momentum phase because it is nearing the end of the year. It is believed that there will be more investment. The Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Association of Investment Management Companies have started to provide more information to investors to create interest.
Mr. Atsadet also mentioned that the mobile SET activities have been well-received by new-generation investors. The activities in Chiang Mai have seen more than 900 investors open accounts, while the activities in Khon Kaen have seen more than 1,000 investors open accou
nts, all in their early 20s. The SET has continuously focused on developing new-generation investors. Overall, from the beginning of 2024 until September, 200,000-300,000 new accounts have been opened.
Source: Thai News Agency