Floods, expensive vegetables and rising diesel prices led to a 0.61% increase in general inflation in September, higher than the market’s forecast of 0.74-0.80%. The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has revised down this year’s inflation target to 0.2-0.8%, while the consumer confidence index rose for the first time in three months. The influence of the 10,000-baht cash handout
Mr. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS), Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2024 was 108.68 or the general inflation rate, up 0.61% from the same month last year. The main factors were the increase in diesel prices, as well as some fresh vegetables that were damaged by flooding in the planting area. However, the prices of gasohol and gasoline decreased in line with the world oil price, which did not have much impact on inflation. As a result, the average general inflation rate for the first 9 months of this year (January-
September) was 0.20%, while the core consumer price index (Core CPI) in September 2024 was 105.18 or the core inflation rate, up 0.77%. The average for the first 9 months, core inflation increased by 0.48%.
The NESDB has revised down this year’s inflation target to 0.2-0.8% from the previous target of 0-1%, but the median remains at 0.5%, as a result of the global crude oil price in the first half of the year being lower than estimated, coupled with the exchange rate situation where the baht strengthened more than expected. The latest assumption for the new inflation target in 2024 is based on this year’s economic growth rate (GDP) of 2.3-2.8%, Dubai crude oil averaging $75-85/barrel for the whole year, and an average exchange rate of 34.50-35.50 baht/dollar for the whole year. Thailand’s headline inflation rate compared to other countries, the latest data in August 2024, found that Thailand’s headline inflation rate increased by 0.35%, which is still in the group of countries with low inflation rates, ranki
ng 5th among the 130 economies that announced figures. And ranked second lowest in ASEAN from 8 countries that announced figures (Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Lao PDR). The Consumer Price Index for the 3rd quarter of 2024 when compared to the same quarter of 2023 increased by 0.60 percent (YoY) and when compared to the previous quarter, increased by 0.21 percent (QoQ). As for the Consumer Price Index for the 9-month average (January – September) of 2024 when compared to the same period of 2023 increased by 0.20 percent (AoA).
The general inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to increase from the third quarter of 2024 due to the diesel price ceiling of no more than 33 baht per liter, which is higher than the same period of the previous year, the impact of heavy rain and flooding in some areas, which may damage agricultural areas, and goods and services related to the tourism sector are expected to increase, especially airfare prices, which are adjustments in
line with the tourist season. Meanwhile, important factors expected to reduce the general inflation rate include the global crude oil price, which is expected to be lower than the previous year (the average in the fourth quarter of 2023 was higher than 80 US dollars per barrel, while the current average is close to 70 US dollars per barrel), which will result in a decrease in the gasohol price, the appreciation of the baht, which will reduce the cost of importing goods, and it is expected that large wholesalers and retailers will continuously organize marketing activities after the government has implemented the first round of economic stimulus measures.
The overall consumer confidence index in September 2024 increased to 51.6 from 49.5 in the previous month, which was the first time in three months that the index was within the confidence range. The current consumer confidence index increased to 43.1 from 41.1, and the future consumer confidence index (next three months) increased to 57.2 from 55.1. The rea
sons for the increase are expected to be the overall Thai economy tends to improve from the expansion trend of the export sector and seasonal factors at the end of the year, the government’s policy to urgently solve economic and social problems, especially the digital wallet project, and the prices of several important economic crops have improved, such as rice, palm oil, and rubber.
However, the global economy as a whole is showing signs of slowing down, as reflected by the US interest rate cut, coupled with the domestic flooding that has damaged households and agricultural areas, which are still pressure factors that need to be closely monitored.
Source: Thai News Agency