Bangkok: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Thailand’s credit rating at BBB+ and maintained a Stable Outlook, anticipating a growth in the country’s GDP to 3.1% by 2025. This announcement comes as a positive indication of Thailand’s economic stability and growth prospects, which are largely driven by the revival of the tourism sector and increased spending by both the government and private sectors.
According to Thai News Agency, Fitch Ratings expects the Thai economy to grow from 2.6% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025. This growth is attributed to the recovery in the tourism sector, which is projected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025, supported by government initiatives aimed at bolstering various segments of the tourism industry. The economic outlook is further strengthened by a robust macroeconomic policy framework that positions Thailand well in comparison to countries with similar credit ratings.
Despite the positive growth outlook, Fitch notes that the continued application of economic stimulus measures may pose a
medium-term fiscal risk. The fiscal environment remains steady, with the government pursuing deficit policies. The budget deficit is expected to rise to 4.5% of GDP in 2025, surpassing the peer average of 3.2%, as the government works towards fiscal consolidation to stabilize public debt levels close to peer averages.
General government debt is projected to slightly increase to 61.2% of GDP by 2026 and is expected to remain stable until 2028. This projection reflects gradual budget cuts anticipated post-2025. The low long-term interest costs associated with Thailand’s public debt, alongside strong fiscal management, support fiscal stability in the medium term. Additionally, Thailand’s ability to secure low-cost funds in the domestic financial market further supports this stability.
External finance remains strong, with an expected increase in the current account balance from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025. Thailand’s international reserves are projected to stay above 7.4 months, compared to the peer median of
5.6 months. The country is also expected to maintain a substantial net external creditor status, outperforming the average of BBB and A-rated countries.
Fitch Ratings will continue to monitor key factors affecting Thailand’s credit rating, including economic growth potential, public debt to GDP ratio, political stability, and timely fiscal adjustments. The Minister of Finance has tasked the Public Debt Management Office with ongoing oversight of the country’s economic situation and public debt management to foster confidence in Thailand’s economic recovery and development.