Jakarta (ANTARA) – The Indonesian economy is expected to grow 4.5–5 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2022 as the economy has remained largely unaffected by Omicron’s emergence, an economist has said.
“If we look at several indicators released in January 2022, it seems that the economy has not been affected,” PermataBank chief economist Josua Pardede said here on Monday.
The indicators include core inflation, which rose to 1.84 percent yoy from 1.56 percent earlier, and the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), which increased to 53.7 from 53.5 earlier, he noted.
He said the national economy has the potential to slow down in the first quarter of 2022 amid a spike in COVID-19 cases that will likely restrict public mobility. However, the impact will not be worse than that of the Delta wave in the third quarter of 2021, he added.
Thus, if the government raises the public activity restrictions (PPKM) status to Level 4, first-quarter economic growth will slow to 3.8-4.3 percent, Pardede forecast.
An increase in PPKM status will likely restrict the growth of household consumption and investment, he explained.
“Like in the Delta case earlier, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy highly depends on the handling of cases, particularly in the wake of the Omicron variant wave,” he said.
The Indonesian economy grew 3.69 percent in 2021 after contracting 2.07 percent in 2020, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
“In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Indonesian economy expanded 1.06 percent qtq (quarter-to-quarter). If I compare it with the fourth quarter of 2020, it grew 5.02 percent (yoy). Cumulatively, the economy grew 3.69 percent throughout 2021,” BPS chief Margo Yuwono informed at a press conference in Jakarta on Monday.
Source: Antara News