The consumer confidence index for September 2024 has continued to decline for the 7th month and is at its lowest level in 14 months, due to concerns over the economic slowdown and flooding, while the 10,000 baht has not stimulated the economy as much as planned.
Mr. Thanawat Polvichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of the Economic and Business Forecasting Center, talked about the results of the consumer confidence index survey for September 2024, which found that the consumer confidence index had continuously decreased for the 7th month and was at the lowest level in 14 months since August 2023 onwards. This is because consumers are concerned about the Thai economy, which is still slowing down and recovering slowly, and about the flooding situation in many provinces, especially in the North and Northeast, which has damaged people’s properties, including agricultural products. In addition, energy prices have increased and consumers are still concerned about the globa
l economic slowdown. The war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is still ongoing, may be factors that increase the pressure on the slow recovery of the Thai economy, even though this month, 10,000 baht will be distributed to vulnerable groups according to the government’s economic stimulus measures.
Meanwhile, the overall economic confidence index, the overall job opportunity confidence index, and the future income confidence index were at 48.8, 52.7, and 64.4, respectively, decreasing for the seventh consecutive month compared to the indexes in August, which were at 50.2, 53.9, and 65.6, respectively. The fact that the indexes are still below normal (at 100) indicates that consumers are still not confident about the economic situation, job opportunity, and future income because they are concerned about the domestic political situation, energy prices and living costs that are still high, and the global economy is at risk of slowing down, which will affect the Thai economy and em
ployment and may have a slow recovery in the future, which will make consumers’ future income highly uncertain.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has decreased from 56.5 to 55.3, the seventh consecutive month of adjustment and the lowest level in 17 months since May 2023. The fact that the overall consumer confidence index remains below 100 indicates that consumers still see the overall economic situation as still recovering slowly and the high cost of living, as well as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, having a negative psychological impact on domestic purchasing power, the tourism sector, the export sector, general businesses, and future employment, which still has the potential to continuously undermine current and future consumer confidence in the near future.
Current consumer confidence fell from 40.4 to 39.0, while the future confidence index fell from 64.3 to 63.1. The fact that the consumer confidence index has continued to decline for the seventh mon
th in all categories indicates that consumers are still not sure whether the economy will recover quickly, even though the measure to hand out 10,000 baht to each person has been implemented.
The Economic and Business Forecasting Center of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that the 2024 flood situation will result in economic damages worth approximately 36,929 million baht, assuming that the flood situation will improve within 15 days. The analysis found that the agricultural sector was the most affected, with damages worth as high as 27,434 million baht, accounting for approximately 74.3% of the total damages.
The damage analysis results by economic sector are as follows:
Agriculture sector 27,434 million baht
Service sector 9,209 million baht
Industrial sector 287 million baht
The damage value from the 2024 floods is approximately 0.21% of Thailand’s GDP. The province that suffered the most damage was Chiang Rai, with a total damage value of 6,412 million baht, followed by Chian
g Mai at 4,232 million baht and Phayao at 3,292 million baht.
Mr. Thanawat talked about the measures to solve the problem of the consumer confidence index falling to its lowest in 14 months as follows:
Maintain the stability of the baht at a level appropriate for the current economic situation.
Urgent assistance for disaster victims
Manage water in the fourth quarter to prevent flooding from spreading further.
Accelerate the implementation of various policies to stimulate the economy by increasing purchasing power for the people and promoting tourism throughout Thailand during the end of the year.
Promoting investment by private sector entrepreneurs in all aspects, such as tax measures to attract investment from both domestic and foreign countries.
Take measures to control the online sales market and the amount of Chinese products that are continuously increasing. –
Source: Thai News Agency