Bangkok: Thai officials are urging local businesses and government agencies to brace for potential impacts from the upcoming US presidential election, highlighting possible shifts in trade policies and economic relations depending on the election outcome. The Office of the Higher Education Commission has specifically warned that parties must be ready to adapt to the new US leader’s policies after the November 5 election, emphasizing the need for businesses to diversify risks and explore new markets beyond the United States.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy at the Ministry of Commerce, is closely monitoring the race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. He notes that their differing policies could significantly affect the Thai economy, especially in areas of trade, investment, and inflation. Mr. Naiyanapakorn stated that a victory for Harris might lead to a more favorable envir
onment for free trade and potential re-engagement with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which could benefit Thailand by broadening its trade relationships. However, Harris’s softer stance on China compared to Trump could still challenge Thailand’s supply chain that is heavily intertwined with Chinese industries.
Conversely, a Trump win could see a steep increase in tariffs, particularly against Chinese goods, potentially shifting production bases from China to Thailand. This scenario could enhance Thailand’s role as a production hub and increase its exports to the US market. However, Trump’s ‘America First’ policy might also reduce US investments in Thailand, particularly in the manufacturing sector, and slow down the technology transfer necessary for Thailand’s Industry 4.0 development.
The potential implications on investments are profound. Under a Harris administration, there could be increased US investment in clean technologies and innovation in Thailand, benefiting sectors such as renewable ener
gy and smart city development. In contrast, a Trump administration might focus on repatriating investments to the US, which could lead to a decrease in US investments abroad, including those in Thailand’s key sectors like electronics and automotive parts.
Economically, Harris’s policies aimed at reducing costs for working-class families in the US and controlling the prices of consumer goods could positively impact global inflation rates, thereby benefiting Thailand. Trump’s policies, however, aimed at stimulating the US economy through lower interest rates and fiscal expansion, could lead to higher inflationary pressures globally, affecting Thailand’s economic stability.
In response to these potential outcomes, Thai officials recommend that businesses not only diversify their export markets but also enhance product innovation and value addition to maintain competitiveness. The government is also advised to enhance infrastructure and human resource development to support investments in clean technologies and
innovations, and to forge stronger regional partnerships to build robust supply chains and investment climates that are resilient to global economic shifts.
These preparations highlight Thailand’s proactive approach to international economic fluctuations and underscore the importance of strategic planning in safeguarding the nation’s economic interests amidst global uncertainties.