Bangkok: The baht remains stable following an announcement by former US President Donald Trump of a 36% retaliatory tariff increase on Thailand. SCB Financial Markets predicts that the baht will move in the range of 32.45-32.70 baht per dollar today, while InnovestX anticipates fluctuations in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) in the short term.

According to Thai News Agency, SCB Financial Markets reported that the baht weakened after Trump announced an additional 10% import tax on countries supporting BRICS policies, and a further 25% tax on South Korea and Japan. Despite the overnight announcement of a 36% tariff on Thailand, the baht’s stability persisted. Thailand’s inflation rate for June 2025 stood at -0.25%, marking a decline for the third consecutive month due to lower energy and fresh food prices, with core inflation at 1.06%.

InnovestX, part of the SCBX group, foresees downward market fluctuations with support levels at 1095/1080 and 1067 following the US’s tariff imposition. The market previously hit a low of 1056 points in early April when a similar tariff was imposed, but has since shown signs of recovery. However, Thailand’s competitiveness may be challenged compared to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, which face lower tariffs of 20% and 25%, respectively.

While domestic political factors are not expected to exert additional short-term pressure, the market remains focused on the risk posed by the uncertainty surrounding US tariff measures. The US government has begun notifying countries of the new tariff rates, effective August 1 for those without agreements, including Thailand. Despite these challenges, the SET is expected to remain below 1,100 points, offering a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 12 times for 2025, presenting opportunities for medium- to long-term investors. The recommended investment strategy is ‘Selective Buy’.