Bangkok: Globlex Securities has projected a sharp rise in gold prices this week, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainties coupled with the ongoing US government shutdown.
According to Thai News Agency, Globlex Securities anticipates gold prices to hover between $4,100 and $4,250 per ounce, advising investors to seize buying opportunities during price dips.
Mr. Nattawut Wongyaorak, Director of Research at Globlex Securities, attributes the potential increase in gold prices to the looming threat of US import tariffs on Chinese goods. This move is a response to China’s restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, essential for the technology sector. With China poised to retaliate, investors are increasingly viewing gold as a safe haven.
The US government shutdown has further fueled concerns over economic stability, bolstering gold investments. Market participants are also closely monitoring the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, amid speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Another significant factor is China’s recent gold purchase activity. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported gold holdings of 74.06 million ounces at the end of September 2025, a slight increase from August. This marks the 11th consecutive month of increased gold purchases by the PBOC, signaling a strategic diversification of its foreign currency reserves. The easing tensions between China and the US, following a conciliatory approach by President Donald Trump, have also played a role. Goldman Sachs has revised its December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong gold ETF inflows and potential central bank purchases.
Meanwhile, the Middle East has seen a reduction in violence, particularly in the Gaza Strip, following a ceasefire agreement. The agreement includes humanitarian aid provisions, border openings, and a prisoner exchange. This has led to some profit-taking in gold, exerting short-term pressure on prices.
The release of US inflation figures remains uncertain due to the government shutdown. Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell provided no clues on interest rate directions during his recent remarks at the Community Banking Conference. Consequently, Globlex Securities suggests investors should await opportunities to purchase gold when prices decline within the range of $4,100-$4,250 per ounce.