Key Messages

Climate Situation Q1 2022 : From January to March, due to La Niña, rainfall across Indonesia was generally higher than the thirty-year longterm average. Most provinces experienced an increase in rainfall except for three provinces in the western part of Jawa (Bant en, DKI Jakarta and Jawa Barat). Although its effects still persist, the La Niña phenomenon is expected to become weaker in the coming months as it has already past its peak. Rainfall is anticipated to decrease between April and June.

Impact of Climate and Hydrometeorological Disasters on Agriculture : The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) reported that floods and pests were the primary causes of paddy crop disturbance from December 2021 to February 2022. Both combined affected almost 150,000 hectares of paddy fields. A quarter of the paddy fields which were affected by floods resulted in crop failures. Less than 1% of paddy crop failures were caused by pests. The majority (96%) of paddy crop failures from December 2021 to February 2022 were caused by floods. The total area of paddy crop failures during this period reached 19,000 hectares, which was 65% lower compared to failures recorded between December 2020 and February 2021.

Rice Production Jan – Apr 2022 : Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that rice production in Indonesia between January and April reached 25.4 million tonnes. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the harvested area and rice production increased by 8.5% and 7.7% respectively. The province of Jawa Barat, one of the top three main rice-producing provinces in Jawa, shows a significant increase of more than 10% in rice production. The price of rice remained relatively stable over the past 12 months, although the price of unhusked rice (paddy) experienced significant volatility.

Food Commodity Prices : The price of several commodities such as chilli, bird’s eye chilli and shallot were volatile over the past 12 months mainly due to floods, which lowered the supply and triggered a high demand. At the same time, a low supply of vegetable oil c reated a high demand and thus sharply increased the price of this commodity throughout 2021. The price of vegetable oil decreased in early 2022 after the government imposed a ceiling price on the market, but increased again when the government removed it in March 2022.

Climate Outlook – Q2 2022 : As La Niña has already passed its peak, most areas in Jawa, Sumatera, Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara and Papua are likely to experience less precipitation between April and June. However, within this period Jawa and Nusa Tenggara are likely to encounter rainfall above normal condition compared to the long-term average.

Source: World Food Programme