Bangkok: The Ministry of Finance has projected a GDP growth of 2.4% for the year 2025, aided by economic initiatives such as the “Half-Half Plus” scheme. However, in 2026, a slowdown to 2% is anticipated, with tourism and exports expected to show recovery.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Winij Wisetsuvarnabhumi, Director-General of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, stated that the growth forecast is heavily influenced by the government’s economic stimulus measures. These include the “Half-Half Plus” welfare card top-up program and a 1.5x tax deduction for secondary cities, which are expected to significantly boost domestic consumption in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The export sector is expected to continue its robust performance, expanding by 10%, with private consumption growing by 3%. Notably, exports to the United States and Chinese markets are projected to grow by 26.4% and 10.8%, respectively, driven by high-demand products such as computer equipment, components, and rubber products. Government consumption is projected to expand by 0.8%, with government investment anticipated to grow by 5.6% and private investment by 1.7%.
The general inflation rate is predicted to be -0.2%, with a forecast range between -0.7% and 0.3%, mainly due to declining energy prices. The current account balance in 2025 is expected to show a surplus of US$20.0 billion, equivalent to 3.5% of GDP.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Ministry of Finance foresees a 2.0% slowdown in GDP growth. This is attributed to a strategic acceleration of exports in 2025 to mitigate the impact of US trade tariffs, leading to an export contraction of -1.5%. The tourism sector is expected to see a rebound, with 35.5 million foreign tourists projected to visit Thailand, generating 1.68 trillion baht in revenue. The average spending per tourist per trip is estimated at 47,280 baht, an increase from 2025 figures.
The recovery in tourist confidence is anticipated to be driven by major events such as the 2026 World Horticultural Exposition and the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Board of Governors. Private consumption is expected to expand by 2.4% annually, public investment by 3.0%, and public consumption by 1.6% per year. Private investment is also expected to grow by 1.7%, with general inflation projected at 0.5% per year. The current account surplus is expected to be US$15.5 billion, or 2.5% of GDP.
The Ministry of Finance spokesperson emphasized the importance of fiscal policy under the concept of “Short-term stimulus, long-term results, and distribution” or “Quick Big Win” to propel the Thai economy. The strategy focuses on five main pillars: economic stimulus, reducing citizens’ burdens, promoting SMEs, increasing public savings, and investing for the future. These measures aim to create a stable and sustainable fiscal foundation for Thailand’s economy.