Bangkok: Sirikanya Tansakul, a party-list MP and deputy leader of the Prachachon Party, has expressed concerns regarding Thailand’s economic stability, particularly the rising public debt and potential deflationary pressures. During a meeting of the House of Representatives’ Special Committee on Budget Expenditure for Fiscal Year 2026, she questioned the Bank of Thailand (BOT) on whether Thailand is genuinely entering a deflationary state.
According to Thai News Agency, Sirikanya highlighted that Thailand’s public debt has surged to 69% of GDP, with only 210 billion baht available for additional borrowing before reaching the debt ceiling. The government is currently relying on enterprise dividends to supplement its income, following continuous shortfalls in tax collection. This financial reliance poses a risk to treasury spending, leading Sirikanya to question the BOT on strategies to address these economic challenges.
In the committee meeting, four key agencies, including the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the BOT, the Ministry of Finance, and the Budget Bureau, were called upon to provide insights into the country’s economic situation. Sirikanya, citing data from NESDB and the BOT’s monetary policy report, noted a decrease in nominal GDP, which is expected to impact revenue estimates significantly. She pointed out that factors such as a $10 per barrel decrease in global crude oil prices have contributed to a shortfall in revenue collection by about 63 billion baht.
Sirikanya also addressed issues with tax revenue collection, mentioning that tax revenue for 2024 missed the target by nearly 80 billion baht. The Ministry of Finance attempted to mitigate this by utilizing dividends from the PTT, Vayuphak Fund, and the Government Lottery Office. However, in the first seven months of 2025, similar issues resurfaced, with excise tax collection missing the target by 33 billion baht. This situation has increased the burden on state enterprises, with revenue sent to the treasury exceeding estimates by 26.5%.
Looking ahead to the fiscal year 2026, Sirikanya noted an attempt to adjust the excise tax collection target down by 31 billion baht from the previous year. She questioned whether the underlying issues affecting tax collection have been adequately addressed. She also pointed out challenges in automobile and cigarette tax collection, citing a decrease in car sales due to a shift to electric vehicles and a decline in cigarette tax revenue due to changing consumer behaviors.
Furthermore, Sirikanya highlighted discrepancies in projected expenditures, which may necessitate additional funding from the central budget, emergency reserves, or the treasury. She questioned the Budget Bureau and the Comptroller General’s Department on their inability to accurately forecast retirement and mortality rates among civil servants, which affects budget allocations for pensions and medical expenses.
Concerns were also raised about interest payment budgets, which have been set lower than required by the medium-term fiscal plan. Sirikanya emphasized that deviations from the fiscal plan could lead to inadequate budget allocations for interest payments in upcoming years.
Finally, Sirikanya sought clarification from the Ministry of Finance on strategies to manage the public debt, which is nearing the ceiling. She also requested the BOT to address concerns about deflation and the weakening of consumer purchasing power in Thailand, following an analyst’s comments suggesting the country may be entering a deflationary state.