Bangkok: Several negative factors are affecting the global rice market, causing Thai rice prices to plummet. The Thai Rice Exporters Association points out that the global market is facing a series of negative factors. The Philippines has extended its rice import ban until the end of the year, India is preparing to release 20 million tons of stockpiles, and the economic slowdown in all countries is affecting purchasing orders, causing rice prices to drop by more than $100 per ton, impacting both exporters and farmers.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Chukiat Opaswong, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, revealed that the global rice market is currently being affected by several negative factors, particularly the Philippines’ potential extension of its rice import ban until December 31, 2025, from the original expected end in early November. This was stated in an interview with a Philippine government minister, although no official announcement has been made. The Philippines is a major global rice importer, importing over 4 million tons annually, the majority of which comes from Vietnam and some from Thailand. The decision to extend the import ban has dampened global market sentiment.
Meanwhile, there are several negative factors affecting Thai rice. For example, Indonesia has not purchased any rice from abroad this year due to increased domestic production and excess stock from imports from the previous two years. India is also preparing to release over 20 million tons of rice from its state reserves to the market.
“The current global price of Thai white rice is only around US$340 per tonne, down from US$450 per tonne in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the domestic price of paddy rice is only 5,500-6,000 baht per tonne, down from the previous 10,000 baht,” said Mr. Chukiat.
The Philippines’ announcement that it will allow imports of only 300,000 tons in January 2026, before closing for another three months from February to April, is expected to further decrease prices. This is coupled with global buyers delaying their purchasing decisions and only purchasing as necessary due to the economic climate. Prices are expected to remain at this low level throughout 2026, as there are no positive factors that could increase global market prices.
Regarding finding new markets, Mr. Chukiat stated that Thai rice is already exported to over 120-130 countries worldwide, leaving virtually no “new markets” to expand into. Currently, competition is primarily based on “price,” with Thai rice still being more expensive than some countries. For example, Myanmar offers it at around $320 per ton.
“A long-term priority is to develop new rice varieties with higher yields per rai to reduce costs and meet international market demands, such as soft-textured rice. This includes developing jasmine rice that offers a more fragrant aroma than existing varieties,” said Mr. Chukiat. He also noted that while Thailand previously had an advantage in jasmine rice, Vietnam has now developed ST varieties with similar aromatic and soft qualities at a lower price.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association expects that this year Thailand will export approximately 7-7.7 million tons of rice, ranking third, while Vietnam is the second-largest exporter with over 8.5 million tons, and India remains the top exporter with over 21-22 million tons.