Bangkok: The Thai stock index experienced a significant decline in June, falling by 5.2% due to escalating geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, a border dispute with Cambodia, and domestic political instability. Investors are closely watching upcoming Thai-US negotiations after former US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for new tariff implementations to August 1, 2025.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Asadej Kongsiri, Director and Managing Director of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), commented on Trump's announcement on Truth Social regarding differential tax rates. The deadline for implementing these rates, originally set for July 9, 2025, has been postponed to August 1, 2025. Mr. Kongsiri views this extension positively as it allows countries, including Thailand, more time to negotiate favorable terms. He acknowledged the potential economic impact of these tariffs on Thailand, emphasizing the need for strategic negotiations.
The report highlighted additional concerns stemming from Trump's plan to impose a 10% tax on countries supporting the BRICS group's anti-American policies. As Thailand joined the BRICS group in 2014, investors are waiting for further clarity from authorities on this issue.
Mr. Soraphol Tulayasathian, Deputy Managing Director and Head of Corporate Strategy at SET, noted the short-term impact of the Middle East conflict on global stock markets, particularly due to fluctuating oil prices. Investors are also monitoring US trade negotiations, especially after an informal agreement with Vietnam, the first ASEAN country to secure reduced tariffs. Additionally, domestic challenges, such as the Thai-Cambodian border dispute and political uncertainty following the Constitutional Court's decision to impeach the Prime Minister, have contributed to the stock market's volatility.
Historical data suggests that despite geopolitical conflicts, stock markets in developed countries generally experience short-term volatility before recovering. The Thai stock market has demonstrated resilience, and analysts advise maintaining investment discipline to capitalize on potential market rebounds.
The Thai economy's unexpected growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the manufacturing sector and export acceleration, led the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the policy interest rate. The conclusion of the Thai ESGX mutual fund sale attracted over 30 billion baht in investments, bolstering Thai stocks during this uncertain period. The Stock Exchange of Thailand is also implementing the "JUMP+" project to enhance confidence in the Thai capital market.
As of June 30, 2025, the SET Index closed at 1,089.56 points, marking a 5.2% decrease from the previous month and a 22.2% decline since the year's start. The combined average daily trading value of SET and mai was THB39,663 million, a 10.8% decrease from the previous year. Throughout the first half of 2025, the average daily trading value was THB41,856 million, down 7.5% from the same period last year.
In June 2025, the Forward P/E of the Stock Exchange of Thailand was 11.9 times, below the Asian stock market average of 12.4 times, while the Historical P/E stood at 14.4 times, slightly higher than the Asian average. The dividend yield was 4.51%, surpassing the Asian average of 3.30%. Meanwhile, the Futures Exchange (TFEX) market saw a 24.1% increase in average daily trading volume, primarily driven by Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.