Bangkok: As the Thai economy continues to face signs of weakness and uncertainty, Associate Professor Dr. Kiatanan Luankaew, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University, provides a straightforward analysis of the situation, emphasizing that short-term stimulus measures are no longer sufficient. Thailand needs to rebuild its economic structure for long-term survival.
According to Thai News Agency, one of the most closely watched issues is the “Half-Half Plus” program. While it initially stimulated spending, Dr. Kiatanan believes this stimulus will only last as long as money continues to flow into the system. This excitement risks being a mere festival or temple fair-like event: once the program ends in December, momentum will fade. A concern is that the economy’s ability to generate additional income has not significantly increased. Without additional measures to support the economy, relying solely on the Half-Half Plus program would be a waste of money.
Furthermore, the “Travel Well, Get a Rebate” project has been criticized as inadequate. This measure only benefits around 10-15 major tourist provinces and fails to distribute income or alleviate problems in the remaining 60 provinces.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kiatanan also pointed out a key structural problem: chronic over-indebtedness. Domestic household debt has not decreased, and there is virtually no money left in the country. Furthermore, the country is 90% under debt, making domestic money circulation difficult.
The circulation of money in a country is compared to a person with incomplete blood, which, no matter how many times it circulates, will not improve the health of the economy.
“The debt is the same, but the additional burden is more difficult in the future.” Therefore, what the government must urgently do is inject blood into the system, which must come from outside or from abroad.
Attracting external funds can be done through various channels. Investment stimulation, exports, and fast investment in sectors like the Digital Economy and Creative Economy are suggested as viable options.
The only way out is to sell “intangible assets.” Dr. Kiatanan highlighted the importance of shifting from selling physical goods to intangible assets such as wisdom, music, knowledge, and patents, which are harder to block from trade.
Furthermore, capitalizing on the high season for tourism, Thailand should focus on unique events and utilize the seven globally recognized “Creative Cities” designated by UNESCO as new tourist magnets.
With the overall economy still growing by only 1-2% and the cost of living rising, short-term vital signs don’t reflect the long-term outlook well. Dr. Kiatanan advises entrepreneurs and the general public to prepare for economic challenges, emphasizing resilience and adaptability.
Finally, Dr. Kiatanan stressed the importance of creating a “roadmap” for long-term economic stability, advocating for policies that extend beyond short-term management to establish new hope and opportunities for Thais. Working over the next four months with a vision comparable to four years will make people want the government to stay in power.