Bangkok: The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board has reported that Thailand's export and import price indices saw growth in June 2025, largely due to increased imports by foreign trading partners in anticipation of a US tariff hike. Although the US is anticipated to announce reduced tariffs on Thailand, a potential 36% rate could lead to a growth of 0.5-1.5% in Thai exports for the year.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy and spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, noted that the export price index in June 2015 was 111.3, marking a 0.7 percent increase year-on-year. Thailand's import price index also rose by 2.4 percent due to trading partners building up inventories before US tariff hikes. Factors such as production increases before exports and domestic consumption contributed to this growth. However, the global economic climate, geopolitical conflicts, climate change, protectionism, and a strengthening baht present potential risks to future price growth. Currently, the focus is on the US's expected announcement of import tariffs, anticipated to be under 36%.
The outlook for Q3 2025 suggests continued expansion of export and import indices compared to Q2 2025. Key contributors to this trend include rising global demand for processed agricultural products, food, and industrial products related to AI, data centers, and the EV industry. Increasing production costs are also a factor. Risks include a global economic slowdown, persistent geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty in US trade policies, protectionist measures, oversupply of key agricultural products, and a potentially stronger baht, which may impact Thailand's export sector.
The Office of Trade and Industry has assessed potential impacts if the US imposes a 36% retaliatory tariff on Thailand starting August 1, 2025. Such a tariff could have severe direct and indirect consequences, as Thailand's tariffs would surpass those of several Asian countries with concluded negotiations. The US, being a major export market for Thailand, accounted for 18% of its global exports in 2024. A decline in exports would affect the manufacturing sector and the entire supply chain, reducing Thai export growth by 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This would mark a decrease from the projected growth of 2-3%, representing a loss of US$4.5 billion (153 billion baht).
Furthermore, the imposition of US tariffs may drive global countries to explore alternative export markets, challenging Thailand's existing market share. Countries with trade surpluses with the US might also increase their imports from the US, impacting imports of Thai goods. Investors could shift production bases or diversify production to regions with lower tariffs. In the short term, investments might be delayed, especially for those exporting to the US or within related production chains.