Bangkok: “Thanawat” is closely observing the US presidential election, expressing concerns that the policies of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could slow down the global economy, subsequently affecting Thai exports and tourism. He advises entrepreneurs to focus on managing production costs and product development.
According to Thai News Agency, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanawat Polvichai, Advisor to the Economic and Business Forecasting Center and President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, discussed the implications of the US presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024, between Donald Trump of the Republican Party and Kamala Harris of the Democrat Party. He noted that the popularity of both candidates is closely matched. Initial polls showed Kamala Harris leading, but recent trends indicate Donald Trump gaining similar support, especially in undecided states where his popularity has surged.
Research institutes modeling the election outcomes suggest a higher probability of Donald Trump win
ning. This prediction aligns with the stable stock market trends, which reflect concerns that a Trump presidency might lead to slower global economic growth compared to a Harris presidency. This is attributed to Trump’s proposed trade policies, including a 60% tariff increase on Chinese imports and a 10% tariff from all countries. Further, his policies may involve taxing certain Taiwanese products unless Taiwan pays for US protection and strict measures against illegal foreign workers, potentially increasing import costs and inducing inflation in the US economy.
Conversely, Kamala Harris’s proposed policies focus on enhancing public sector purchasing power through personal income tax cuts, leading many to believe her presidency could result in better economic growth. Both candidates aim to restrict trade with China, segregating China and Russia from the Western world. However, a Trump victory is perceived to be more detrimental to the global and Thai economies, potentially leading to decreased exports and he
ightened trade barriers, alongside a less vibrant tourism sector.
In light of these developments, Thanawat emphasizes that global economic powerhouses like China, Japan, the US, and Europe are already showing signs of economic slowdown, compounded by ongoing geopolitical risks. He advises entrepreneurs to manage their production costs, innovate products to meet consumer demands, explore new markets, and hedge against the baht’s appreciation to mitigate long-term impacts on the Thai economy.