Bangkok: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) assesses that a 36% tax rate will drag down Thailand’s economy to less than 1%, and many Thais may be unemployed. It recommends that the government introduce additional economic stimulus measures and provide assistance to entrepreneurs. It views the US extending the deadline for submitting new proposals as beneficial to Thailand, and believes that the Thai team can negotiate.

According to Thai News Agency, Thanawat Polvichai, President of the UTCC and Advisor to the Economic and Business Forecasting Center of the UTCC, stated that when Thai exports are subject to a 36% tax rate by the United States, the resulting effect is that Thai products sent to the US will become more expensive. The definite impact on Thai entrepreneurs is a reduction in the ability to sell products unless they reduce prices to stay competitive. This scenario could lead to a decrease in production capacity, labor employment, and potential layoffs, increasing unemployment in Thailand.

The UTCC has initially estimated that if Thailand is taxed at a rate of 25-36%, the country could lose approximately 200 billion baht in export revenue in the second half of the year, affecting the expansion of the Thai economy. It is expected that the Thai economy will grow by another 1%, contrasting with the Economic Forecasting Center’s previous estimate of approximately 1.7% growth in 2025. The UTCC suggests that the government should implement economic stimulus measures worth 157 billion baht to boost purchasing power, especially if the 2026 budget is released in the fourth quarter.

There is an optimistic outlook that the Thai team will be able to negotiate with the United States to reach a beneficial agreement. The UTCC believes that the US’s decision to extend the negotiation deadline indicates a willingness to negotiate, which could lead to favorable outcomes for Thailand. Additionally, a reduction of US import tariffs to 0% on many products is considered a positive step that could benefit the Thai economy in the long run, rather than facing a 36% import tariff.