Bangkok: InnovestX analysts have forecasted that Thailand’s GDP growth in 2025 will be less than 2%.
According to Thai News Agency, this prediction comes despite the National Economic and Social Development Council’s announcement that the country’s GDP grew by 2.8% in the second quarter of 2025, largely driven by accelerated exports in the first half of the year.
InnovestX analysts note that the market’s focus is now shifting towards monetary policy rather than GDP figures. The new Bank of Thailand governor is anticipated to implement an interest rate cut during the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Mr. Pichai Lertsupongkij, Managing Director of the Securities Business Division of InnovestX Securities, stated that despite the positive economic outlook in the first half of the year, the latter half is expected to experience a significant slowdown in exports, leading to an anticipated GDP growth of only 0.4% for that period. As a result, the overall GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be less than 2%.
The market is also closely monitoring international monetary policies, including potential signals of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting in October. In Thailand, the focus remains on the October 8, 2025, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where a policy interest rate cut is expected. This aligns with Mr. Vitai Ratanakorn’s agenda as the incoming Governor of the Bank of Thailand, starting October 1, 2025. The anticipated monetary policy direction is expected to be supportive of the economy.
Political factors are not expected to significantly impact investment outlooks, as the 2026 budget has been approved by Parliament, minimizing potential disruptions from political changes. Additionally, should Ms. Paethongtarn Shinawatra resign as Prime Minister, Mr. Chaikasem Nitisiri is set to remain the prime ministerial candidate from the Pheu Thai Party. Meanwhile, the market is analyzing the performance of the second quarter of 2025, which showed a 28% increase in net profits for listed companies, primarily due to extraordinary items from Gulf Development Public Company Limited and Thai Airways International Public Company Limited. Excluding these, the actual profit growth would be about 1.7%.