Bangkok: The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has revised its 2025 GDP target upward to 2%, driven by notable growth in exports, private sector investments, and tariff clarity. The second quarter of 2025 witnessed a GDP growth of 2.8%, a slight slowdown from the 3.2% growth in the first quarter.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), detailed the economic performance in the second quarter, highlighting the robust growth in spending, merchandise exports, and a resurgence in private investment. Despite this, a deceleration was observed in private consumption, government spending, public investment, and service exports. The overall economic growth in the first half of 2025 was 3.0%, with expectations for continued, albeit slower, expansion in the third quarter.
In terms of economic stability, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 0.91% from the previous quarter but was still lower than the previous year's 1.07%. Headline inflation turned negative at -0.3%, marking a shift after five quarters, while core inflation was recorded at 1.0%. The current account posted a surplus of US$0.6 billion, with international reserves at US$262.4 billion and public debt at 64.2% of GDP.
The economic forecast for 2025 anticipates growth between 1.8-2.3%, a dip from the 2.5% growth in 2024. This is attributed to an anticipated decline in export volumes, influenced by US import tariffs, and a slowdown in tourism. However, domestic consumption and private investment are expected to bolster the economy, alongside government investment expenditures. Projections for private consumption and investment growth stand at 2.1% and 1.0%, respectively, with export values expected to rise by 5.5%.
Mr. Danucha emphasized the importance of driving public and private sector investment and revising regulations to sustain export growth amidst uncertainties related to US tariffs. Efforts to establish criteria for calculating domestic production value aim to support Thai exports to the US. Additionally, tourism remains a key factor in economic expansion, although foreign tourist arrival forecasts have been adjusted downward due to a decline in numbers and fewer Chinese tourists than expected.
The Ministry of Labor anticipates minimal impact on the Thai economy from changes at the Thai-Cambodian border, despite potential effects on border trade and small businesses. The ministry plans to recruit workers from other countries to fill any gaps.
Government investment plans, reviewed by the Budget Bureau, are on track, with disbursement contingent on achieving the 2% growth target. Mr. Danucha acknowledged historical structural challenges in the Thai economy, noting the need for production restructuring and development of a skilled workforce to achieve higher growth rates.
The Ministry of Finance's proposed negative income tax welfare policy, slated for 2027, is supported by updated poverty line data from the NESDB, expected by early next year. This data will aid in implementing the policy, which has been under discussion for some time.