Bangkok: SCB points out that cutting interest rates alone will not revive the economy, stating that the solution for Thailand must be comprehensive, including stimulating the economy, cutting interest rates, and providing loans. It believes that the US will negotiate intensively with Thailand because Thailand has a large trade surplus, which must be assessed by each industrial group. It expects exports to remain stable throughout the year.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Kris Chantanotok, Chief Executive Officer of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), stated that the Thai economy in the second half of the year still faces challenges on all fronts. Various agencies estimate the GDP in 2025 at 1.5-2% amidst challenging factors, such as household debt and increasing debt burdens, making management across businesses difficult. Nonetheless, Mr. Kris emphasized that opportunities exist within every crisis, urging sectors to enhance efficiency, manage costs, and explore new markets or channels for growth.
Mr. Kris addressed the perception that financial institutions and commercial banks are making it harder to grant loans. He highlighted the broader issue of stagnant overall debt and the economy not meeting growth targets, leading to cautious lending practices by most banks. He stressed that resolving Thailand’s growth challenges requires an integrated approach, combining gradual economic growth, relaxed interest rate policies, and adjusted lending strategies.
Mr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Chief Executive Officer of the Economic and Sustainability Research, Economic and Business Research Center at SCB EIC, revealed the ongoing uncertainty in the economy that requires close monitoring. Despite US President Donald Trump’s indication of potential tariffs, it is believed that Thailand’s trade surplus with the US will prompt significant negotiation efforts. Thailand ranks 11th in terms of trade surplus, which may lead to intensive discussions with the US.
The negotiations’ outcomes must be compared with Thailand’s main competitors, Vietnam and China, analyzing industry group impacts and tax comparisons. The likelihood of Thailand facing tariffs is estimated at 10-20%, leaning towards 20%. The export outlook for the year remains stable, with growth possibly nearing 0% in the latter half, implying continued impacts into the first half of 2026. Public and private sectors are urged to prepare for upcoming challenges.